Russian warships carrying scores of military trucks were seen passing through a strait in Japan yesterday morning - and could be on their way to Ukraine. The Tsugaru Strait between the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean separates Honshu and Hokkaido, the country's two biggest islands. Russia has suffered catastrophic losses, including up to one-fifth of its troops, fuelling speculation Putin could send reinforcements from further afield.
Moscow itself has acknowledged just 500 casualties, a figure that it has not updated for weeks. Assuming three times as many have been wounded, captured or deserted - based on historical trends - that could mean anywhere between 24,000 and 55,200 Russian troops are out of action. Or, to put it another way, between a fifth and a third of the total 150,000-strong army Putin amassed before he attacked. That has led some to predict that Putin's invasion could soon be a spent force.
Yesterday, UK defence sources said that 'culmination point' for the Russian army is likely to come within the next 14 days - meaning the point at which the might of Ukrainian forces will outweigh the strength of the attackers. Russia would then be at risk of losing territory to Ukrainian counter-attacks with signs of cracks already appearing.
At the weekend, Ukraine said it had successfully attacked towards the city of Volnovakha, north of Mariupol, with fighting ongoing there Tuesday. News of the attack came just before civilians began successfully evacuating the city, having been held up by Russian attacks for more than a week beforehand.
Some 2,500 managed to flee in 160 vehicles on Monday, before another 25,000 fled in 2,000 vehicles yesterday.
Russia is thought to have lost hundreds of tanks, thousands of vehicles, and up to 13,800 men in Ukraine in the last 21 days - more than the US lost fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan in two decades (pictured, a destroyed Russian tank in Volnovakha)
Kyiv has closely guarded its total losses in the conflict, but has also been reaching out for reinforcements - asking overseas fighters to sign up via the foreign legion and calling up its reserves (picture, a Ukrainian soldier in Mariupol)
'The meetings continue, and, I am informed, the positions during the negotiations already sound more realistic.
But time is still needed for the decisions to be in the interests of Ukraine,' Zelenskiy said in a video address on Wednesday, ahead of the next round of talks. Meanwhile Oleksiy Arestovich, Lawyer Turkey one of Zelensky's top aides, said the war would end within weeks and a peace deal struck when Putin's troops run out of resources, but warned that Russia could bring in new reinforcements to bolster their attack, which could prolong the conflict further. 'We are at a fork in the road now,' said Arestovich.
'There will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two and, when we grind them too, an agreement by mid-April or late April. 'I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement.
Maybe much earlier, we will see.' The assessment echoes that of UK defence sources who say that Kyiv has Moscow 'on the run' and the Russian army could be just two weeks from 'culmination point' - after which 'the strength of Ukraine's resistance should become greater than Russia's attacking force.' Advances across Ukraine have already stopped as Moscow's manpower runs short. Earlier, Zelensky said that Ukraine must accept it will not become a member of NATO - a statement that will be music to the ears of Vladimir Putin and could pave the way for some kind of peace deal between the warring nations. Zelensky, who has become a symbol of resistance to Russia's onslaught over the last 20 days, said on Tuesday that 'Ukraine is not a member of NATO' and that 'we have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It's a truth and it must be recognised.' His statement, while making no firm commitments, will be seen as further opening the door to some kind of peace deal between Ukraine and Russia after negotiators hailed 'substantial' progress at the weekend - without giving any idea what such a deal would look like. Ahead of the invasion, Putin had been demanding guarantees that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO along with the removal of all the alliance's troops and weapons from ex-Soviet countries.
After being rebuffed by Kyiv, Washington and NATO he launched his 'special military operation' to 'demilitarise' and 'de-Nazify' the country. Russian negotiators have softened their stance a little since then, saying they want Ukraine to declare neutrality, disarm, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the whole of the Donbass as independent.
Ukraine has been demanding a ceasefire and the immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces. Talks have been ongoing this week and Moscow has made no mention of wider demands on NATO in recent days. The Ukrainians said the talks have included a broader agreement that would lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops, reports the Times.
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