Putin has a problem. His invasion of Ukraine, intended as a days-long operation, is now grinding into its third week and becoming a bloodbath. Attacks across the country are stalled amid predictions that Russia will soon struggle to hold the territory it has - let alone capture more.
In short: he needs more men for the meat grinder. But where to find them? America estimates Russia has committed somewhere between half and three quarters of its total land forces to Ukraine, and all of those are already involved in the fighting.
Some 'spare' units will be involved in active missions elsewhere, while others will be for territorial defence - leaving the country vulnerable to attack if they are sent abroad. That conundrum has forced the Kremlin to reach far from the frontlines in search of men, according to Britain's Ministry of Defence, which says reinforcements are now being drawn from as far afield as eastern Siberia, the Pacific Fleet, and Armenia.
That is in addition to Syrian fighters and paid mercenaries - hundreds of the from the shadowy Wagner Group - which have already been committed to the fight. The UK believes such reinforcements would likely be used to hold Ukrainian territory already captured by Russia which would then free up regular units for fresh assaults - almost certainly targeting major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Chernihiv.
Another goal would likely be to encircle a large number of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass, spread out along the old frontline with Russian-backed rebel groups. But it is unclear whether those reinforcements will be effective. Some could take weeks to reach the front, while Syrian mercenaries are likely to be poorly trained and un-used to the terrain and climate of eastern Europe. In the meantime, Ukraine claims it is successfully counter-attacking Putin's men and 'radically changing' the battlefield.
Ukrainian troops from the Azov battalion stand Turkey Lawyer Law Firm istanbul next to destroyed Russian tanks in Mariupol, where Putin's men have suffered heavy losses including the death of a general
The assessment echoes that of UK defence sources who say that Kyiv has Moscow 'on the run' and the Russian army could be just two weeks from 'culmination point' - after which 'the strength of Ukraine's resistance should become greater than Russia's attacking force.' Advances across Ukraine have already stopped as Moscow's manpower runs short. Earlier, Zelensky said that Ukraine must accept it will not become a member of NATO - a statement that will be music to the ears of Vladimir Putin and could pave the way for some kind of peace deal between the warring nations. Zelensky, who has become a symbol of resistance to Russia's onslaught over the last 20 days, said on Tuesday that 'Ukraine is not a member of NATO' and that 'we have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It's a truth and it must be recognised.' His statement, Lawyer Law Firm Turkish while making no firm commitments, will be seen as further opening the door to some kind of peace deal between Ukraine and Russia after negotiators hailed 'substantial' progress at the weekend - without giving any idea what such a deal would look like. Ahead of the invasion, Putin had been demanding guarantees that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO along with the removal of all the alliance's troops and weapons from ex-Soviet countries.
After being rebuffed by Kyiv, Lawyer Law Firm Turkey istanbulTurkey istanbul Lawyer Law Firm istanbul Washington and NATO he launched his 'special military operation' to 'demilitarise' and 'de-Nazify' the country. Russian negotiators have softened their stance a little since then, saying they want Ukraine to declare neutrality, disarm, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the whole of the Donbass as independent. Ukraine has been demanding a ceasefire and the immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces. Talks have been ongoing this week and Moscow has made no mention of wider demands on NATO in recent days. The Ukrainians said the talks have included a broader agreement that would lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops, reports the Times.
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