Conclusion This approach to binary options is simple and low risk to SNX stakers while extending the utility of the Synthetix platform. Post launch it will be up to the community to provide feedback on the mechanism to improve and hone it over time. One critical element to adoption will be to ensure a well designed user interface exists for interacting with these markets. This will be a separate piece of work to the protocol design specified by SIP-53 but is just as critical to adoption. Overall the prospects for these binary options and the potential volume they can generate is extremely high given their unique position in the DeFi market.

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Introduction SIP-53 proposes a mechanism for Parimutuel Binary Options on Synthetix. This post will provide an overview of the proposed SIP along with examples of markets it can support. It will provide an overview of binary options, parimutuel markets and other information useful to assess the value of implementing this SIP into the Synthetix protocol. It will also discuss alternative approaches to binary options markets that could be explored in the future.

Some people don’t believe that trading with charts actually works but it really does. The reason is that investors are either humans or robots. Humans have certain trading patterns they follow and if they follow certain patterns, robots will do it too. If you’re quick enough you can exploit this by making the right trades. You have to make a proper technical analysis, spot trends and potential breakouts.

Binary options are a hot topic at the moment, people search information online, read non-factual feedback and get scared away, we have therefore decided to come up with an article to clarify the difference between trading and gambling, as there is one.

I absolutely recommend the Forex market for novice traders: Firstly, you can trade currencies all day long 24 hours straight. You are free to choose if you want to trade in the morning, in the afternoon or in the night. Secondly, when trading Forex you are trading on margin and can take advantage of levarge. And last but not least, thirdly, the Forex market looks quite complicated but in fact it is very simple. You have to watch only a few currency pairs and don’t get confused from 100s of investment possibilities like in the stock market for example.

As short-term fluctuations in stock prices are random and irrational, you have 50% chance of being right. Let’s say you "invest" RM100 and are wrong, you lose RM100. If you "invest" RM 100 and are right, you will get RM75 (a payout percentage of 75% is common).

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Parimutuel markets Parimutuel markets are a way of defining prices and payouts based on a pool of funds. In the case of parimutuel binary options the payout is defined by the total pool of funds on either side of the market. A simple example is a market with $500 long and $500 short, there is $1000 total in the pool. This market is pricing in equal probability of both outcomes. If the long side is true the entire $1000 will be paid to longs, who put $500 in so the payout is 2:1 or more simply they paid 50c per option and the options paid $1. Now take another example where the breakdown is $200 long and $800 short, again the market has $1000 in the pool. So the long price is 20c and the short price is 80c. This second market is assigning a probability of 20% to the long side and 80% to the short side.

Payout volatility Another consequence of the parimutuel system is that you can get an estimate of the payout on your options at any time but this will not be locked in until the bidding period closes. Take an example of a market with a one week bidding period on BTC over $10k USD, the market starts with initial probabilities of 20% long and 80% short. A trader enters the market with a $1 trade going long and the probability does not shift due to the small size of the trade. However, over the course of the week the price of BTC keeps rising such that at the end of the week the price is well above $10k and now the odds have flipped to 80% long and 20% short. One way to look at this is that the trader who placed her bet early in the bidding period has lost money because the price was not locked in, however, this is a misunderstanding of the mechanism as the initial price of a bid is only reflected at the close of the bidding period. So anyone placing a bid should expect that new information could enter the market the longer the time remaining in the bidding period. In this case the trader may choose to withdraw her bid as the bidding period gets closer to closing, as the expected profit and risk adjusted return may no longer be positive based Easy earnings On the Internet her current beliefs. However, if the bid had been placed at the close of the bidding period and the price of BTC had risen subsequently then the trader would have locked in her odds and the price movement would be beneficial. This is again the reason why most volume will happen closer to the end of the bidding period based on the expectations market participants as the bidding closes.