And we have seen this type of seasonality in the past. The app has categories, including strictly platonic, misc romance, and casual encounters, to help users find exactly the type of relationship they desire. We expect the pre-sale volume to be flat YoY in 2020, at around 300K homes, because: 1) pre-sale prices should be strictly controlled under increasingly tough regulatory pressure; and 2) a net-increase in 2020 housing mortgages is expected to be similar to 2019’s. In our view, what determines the direction of housing transaction volume (including pre-sales and existing home sales) is the amount of new housing mortgages. The estimated pre-sale volume schedule for 4Q19 will likely increase to some 150K homes as homeowners rush to avoid the implementation of the upper limit on apartment pre-sale prices. Apartment pre-sale volume was down 2% YoY to 221K homes in Sep 2019 YTD. In all, we estimate construction orders in 2019 will decline 4.2% YoY to KRW148tn. For the remainder of 2019, construction orders are expected to remain weak due to the slowdown of the domestic economy and the housing market slump amid the unfavorable regulatory environment. Indeed, the correlation between the rising mortgages from 2008 to 2018 and apartment pre-sale volume appears to be very high at 0.89. From 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016 the two factors’ linkage appeared to weaken but it was only because of the volatility of pre-sale prices during the boom and slump of the Korean housing market

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